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Category: Box Office Analysis | Read Time: 5 Minutes | Data Updated: Dec 17, 2025
The trade analysts said it was suicide. They said releasing a Bollywood film just two weeks before James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash was a mistake.
But as of December 17, 2025, the narrative has flipped.
Aditya Dhar’s spy-thriller Dhurandhar has not only crossed the ₹400 Crore mark (Net India) but is refusing to surrender screens to the Hollywood giant. With Avatar 3 releasing this Friday (Dec 19), we are witnessing a rare “David vs. Goliath” battle at the Indian Box Office.
Here is the definitive breakdown of the Screen Count War, Ticket Price Inflation, and why Akshaye Khanna’s “Rehman Dakait” might just survive the “Blue Wave.”
While Avatar 3 is a global monster, Dhurandhar has the “Home Ground” advantage. Here is the current standing:
Key Insight:Avatar 3 advance bookings are currently 30% lower than Avatar: The Way of Water (2022) at the same point. This vulnerability has given Dhurandhar exhibitors the confidence to refuse screen-sharing deals.
Related: Dhurandhar Box Office Report: Ranveer Singh Smashing Records, Crosses ₹100 Cr in Just 4 Days
The real battle isn’t on social media; it’s in the distribution offices.
1. The Multiplex Monopoly (Advantage: Avatar) National chains like PVR-INOX are contractually bound to give Avatar 3 all prime-time IMAX and 4DX slots. If you live in a Metro city, Dhurandhar shows will be pushed to non-prime slots (10 AM or 10 PM) starting Friday.
2. The Mass Belt Rebellion (Advantage: Dhurandhar) In Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities (Indore, Jaipur, Lucknow), single-screen owners are doing the unthinkable: Rejecting Avatar. Why? Because Dhurandhar is still filling 60% of seats.
Quote from an Exhibitor:“Why should I remove a set film for a 3-hour English movie that my audience might not understand? Ranveer and Akshaye are bringing in the crowds.”
This weekend creates a stark economic divide for moviegoers:
The Premium Experience: Watching Avatar 3 in IMAX 3D will cost a family of four nearly ₹8,000 (including F&B).
The Mass Choice: Watching Dhurandhar will cost the same family ₹1,200.
With inflation high, analysts predict that while Avatar will win the “Gross Collection” due to high ticket prices, Dhurandhar might actually sell more tickets (Footfalls) in the Hindi belt this weekend.
Ultimately, this is a battle of genres.
Avatar 3 promises the “Ash People” and new fire biomes. It is a visual spectacle.
Dhurandhar is riding on raw emotion and “Desi Swag.”
The X-Factor: Akshaye Khanna’s performance as Rehman Dakait has become a cult phenomenon. The viral “FA9LA” dance challenge is keeping the movie relevant on Reels, ensuring young audiences still choose it over the blue aliens.
History suggests they can. In 2023, Animal and Sam Bahadur survived together. In 2025, Dhurandhar has enough momentum to be the perfect “Counter-Programming.”
Prediction: Avatar 3 will open massive (₹35 Cr+), but Dhurandhar will not crash. It will settle at a stable ₹10-12 Cr/day, marching towards the ₹500 Cr club.
The battleground isn’t evenly split across India. The box office map tells two different stories:
South India (The Avatar Fortress): In states like Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Kerala, Avatar 3 is uncontested. The dubbing quality of the franchise is legendary here. Exhibitors report that Dhurandhar shows have been voluntarily reduced to near zero in these regions to accommodate the Hollywood giant.
North India (The Dhurandhar Stronghold): In the Hindi Heartland (UP, Bihar, MP, Delhi), the story is different. Dhurandhar is deeply rooted in local dialect and culture. Single screens in cities like Kanpur and Patna have refused to replace a running hit (Dhurandhar) with a subtitled/dubbed sci-fi movie. Here, Akshaye Khanna is arguably a bigger draw than Pandora.
Based on current advance booking trends and screen retention rates, here is our projection for the coming weekend (Dec 19-21):
A: Dhurandhar is a massive hit. As of December 17, 2025, it has crossed the ₹400 Crore mark worldwide and is trending towards a “Super Hit” verdict despite the clash with Avatar 3.
A: Avatar: Fire and Ash releases in India on Friday, December 19, 2025. It will be available in English, Hindi, Tamil, Telugu, Kannada, and Malayalam.
A: Not entirely. While Avatar 3 will take over most IMAX and multiplex screens, Dhurandhar has retained a majority of single screens and prime-time shows in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities due to strong demand.
A: Ticket prices for Avatar 3 are at a premium, ranging from ₹650 to ₹2,200 for IMAX 3D formats. In contrast, Dhurandhar tickets are currently priced between ₹250 and ₹450.
A: Trade analysts predict that if Dhurandhar maintains its current hold in the mass belts, it will cross the ₹500 Crore milestone by its 4th weekend, joining the elite club of Bollywood blockbusters.
Watch Dhurandhar and Avatar3 Official Trailer: You Tube
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